Races to watch: Alabama to New Mexico

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Races to watch: New York to Wyoming

Click on the image to enlarge. Print it out if you want to use it as a checklist.

States to Watch

McClatchy News:

The watch list, from East to West as polls are scheduled to close:

7 pm EST: Georgia, Indiana, and Virginia

7:30 pm EST: Ohio, North Carolina.

8 pm EST: Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Pennsylvania

9 pm EST: Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico

10 pm EST: Iowa, Nevada

11 pm EST: North Dakota

Obama on the Offense

Karen Tumulty:

This conservative southwest corner of the state (Missouri) went nearly two-to-one for George Bush in the last election. Not since 1964 has a Democrat carried this county. So people in Springfield were surprised when Obama showed up in July, and didn't take him all that seriously when he promised to come back. But here we are, late on a Saturday night, just three days before the election, and Obama is speaking here on a high school football field to a crowd that numbers in the tens of thousands.

That Obama is spending the final days of the campaign playing offense in such ruby-red areas as this one tells you more than any poll number can about how his campaign reads its opportunties between now and Tuesday.

Black Power

A surge in voting by African Americans threatens to sweep away Republicans in a number of down ballot races.

By Salon's count, the black vote could swing as many as 17 House seats currently held by Republicans who are running in competitive elections. It could also play a role in three campaigns for Republican Senate seats and in one gubernatorial battle. With that in mind, the potential rise in African-American turnout could be devastating to Republican hopes.

...As of Oct. 29, and with two days still left in which to vote before Election Day itself, the number of people who'd voted in Georgia represented more than 40 percent of that total turnout from 2004. African-Americans have accounted for 35.2 percent of the early vote; they were 25 percent of the overall electorate in 2004 and make up 30 percent of the state's population. In Louisiana and North Carolina the numbers are not quite so striking, but they still bode well for Democrats.

Early Voting Stats

Alan Greenblatt:

At the moment his site shows that more than 12.6 million people have voted already, a number equal to 10 percent of the 2004 electorate.

The number is much higher in key states such as Colorado (814,000 voters, or 38 percent as many who voted in 2004); Florida (2.1 million; 27 percent); Nevada (331,000; 40 percent); New Mexico (97,000; 37 percent); and North Carolina (1.4 million; 40 percent).

Explaining McCain's Optimism

Top of the Ticket:

A campaign official, speaking on background, later explained the internal polling numbers that McCain’s campaign has collected. Their data show McCain down only 4 percentage points nationally –- a sharp improvement from a week ago -- and closing fast. They also show him down only 3 percentage points in Virginia, and up 1 in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri.

The Arizona Republican needs to capture all five states. Assuming they lose in Pennsylvania, which the campaign believes is probably out of reach now, McCain needs to pull 10 more electoral votes out of some combination of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa -– all states where even the internal numbers look bleak.

“Check with me Wednesday,” the official added. “If we’re still within the margin of error, we’re going to win.”

Parsing Ad Spending

Nielsen's analysis of advertising by the McCain and Obama reveals a few interesting factoids.

The top three states in terms of advertising units are the same for both campaigns - Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

"Obama’s advertising continues to be heaviest in Florida, where he ran 18,909 ads between October 6 and October 26, outpacing McCain’s 5,702 ads by 232%. "

The bottom three (swing states) feature two states that are common - Georgia and Missouri.

Demoagoguery Equals More Democrats

Think Progress argues that the anti-immigrant rhetoric from the GOP is turning key red states blue.

In a report released today, the Immigration Policy Center points out that New Americans are big voting blocs in key swing states, including: 14.8% of the electorate in Nevada and 14% in Florida. IPC also notes that Latinos and Asians together account for 31.5% of all registered voters in New Mexico, 16.2% in Nevada, 12.6% in Florida, and 11.1% in Colorado.

Most daunting for those politicians who have chosen to scapegoat immigrants — according to a Pew Hispanic Center poll this summer, 75% of Latino voters view the immigration issue as important or very important...

Odds and Ends

Political Wire notes that the McCain campaign has cut ad spending in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. The spending has increased in red states of Florida and Virginia.

Political Punch notices the disparity in Virginia where Obama has 50 campaign offices to McCain's 24, 200 paid staffers in to McCain’s 50, and Obama is spending $250,000 a day on TV ads in the state, while McCain is spending $30,000 a day.

Top of the Ticket reports that voter registration has stagnated or dropped in safe states – a 5% drop in South Dakota since 2004 and a 2% decrease in New York over the same period. In contrast voter registration is up 30% in Nevada!

For the first time since 1994, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nebraska’s Douglas County.

Obama leads in a new poll from Montana.

Briefs from the Presidential Race, 10/20/08

McCain has (only) $47 million to spend.

Democrats have an early voting edge in Nevada.

Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won't be a wave; it'll be a tsunami.

Jane Hamsher argues that McCain's scaremongering on Obama's unprecedented fundraising is misleading.

The American Prospect recommends Sheila Bair for Treasury Secretary.

Bair, 54, also has special appeal because even though she is by far the toughest and most public-minded regulator now on the scene, she happens to be a Republican. It would be an elegant touch for Obama to appoint a Treasury Secretary who is both Republican and female.

Obama makes a huge push in Florida to coincide with the start of early voting in the state.

Obama has no plans to return to the blue states before the elections, aside from a brief stop in Madison, WI. Instead he will be campaigning exclusively in battleground states won by Bush.

Obama leads McCain in newspaper endorsements by a better than 3:1 margin, where Kerry barely edged out Bush in 2004.

News from the Battleground States

Political Wire:

A new Research 2000 poll in North Dakota confirms the state is in play. Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain are tied with 45% support each.

Campaign Diaries:

...Another legal dispute is ongoing in Indiana, where Republicans are still blocking three early voting sites in heavily African-American Lake County (yes, that Lake County) despite polling places having opened elsewhere in the state. Republicans profess to be concerned about the possibility of voter fraud, and their argument is that the local election board had to approve new voting sites unanimously (the three Democrats were in favor of it, but the two Republicans voted against it). It is unclear how this will be resolved, but at the very least Republicans have been successful at delaying the start of early voting in a county Obama needs to do very well in to carry the Hoosier State. The voting sites were scheduled to open two weeks ago.

In Georgia, we have now reached the staggering number of 635,798 early voters, but the proportion of African-Americans is steadily declining, and is now at 35%. That remains, however, far above the voting population or the 2004 share of the electorate but it is a reminder that the composition of early voting will not be the same as that of Election Day.

In Colorado, a New York Times story looks at mail-in voting in Colorado and reveals that nearly half of all eligible voters have already requested mail-in ballots - two weeks before the deadline to do so! Also: North Carolina polling places opened yesterday - and turnout is already picking up - and early voting is strong in Indiana.

Battleground States

Marc Ambinder presents an interesting analysis of McCain's electoral strategy.

The McCain campaign possesses what one might call a waterline theory of the race. That is: the fundamental partisan orientation of the state matters a lot, is very sticky, and will, in the absence of an absolute tsunami, keep the relative range of the two-party vote roughly the same. In this view, if Obama can win Indiana, he'll definitely be able to win Missouri; if he can win Georgia, then he'll clearly have won Indiana. If he wins Missouri, he'll have won Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The national background noise is louder -- more consequential -- for McCain than it is for Obama. We can some intuit some particular strategic insights: McCain will play more in some states than others. He doesn't have to worry about Obama winning Nevada and losing Ohio; in the McCain view, if Obama wins Ohio, he'll win Nevada, and the race is over.

What do you think? Is Obama spreading himself too thin?

My thoughts on the subject are all over the place. I'll try to make some sense of them here.

• By expanding the playing field, Obama forces McCain to play defense in states like North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana. McCain was indeed forced to respond in North Carolina, but so far he hasn't tried to counter Obama's advertising in the other three states. He is relying on their inherent "redness" to do the work. Polling has shown Montana and North Dakota to be very close, and Obama is competitive in Indiana and North Carolina.
  
• The expanded playing field has pushed McCain to advertise in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado but these aren't exactly new battleground states.
• On the other hand, McCain is advertising heavily in states like Minnesota, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. All three states are considered Obama territory. Will Obama have to play defense here and if so, will he have to pull resources out of other states?
• There is something to be said about not putting all your eggs in one basket. Obama has more routes to victory than he would have if he had focused on fewer states. If he wins all the Kerry states and Iowa, a number of different combinations can push him past 270. He can win even if he loses Florida and Ohio. (See some of the combinations below.)
• The expanded playing field helps down-ballot races even if it means greater expenditure in deep red states.

Kerry States (252) + Ohio (20) = 272 electoral votes

Kerry States (252) + Iowa (7) + New Mexico (5) + Colorado (9) = 273 electoral votes

Kerry States (252) + Iowa (7) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13) = 277 electoral votes

Kerry States (252) + Iowa (7) + New Mexico (5) + Nevada (5) + Montana (3) = 269 electoral votes (tie)