Senate 2010: Florida

The DSCC launches a new ad attacking Crist. Crist hasn't announced that he will be running for the senate seat although most reports seem to imply this will happen as soon as the legislative session in Florida is over.



Crist is very popular in Florida but a couple of the criticisms lobbed in this ad could be very effective -- that Crist is abandoning the job (and the state) when the times got tough and his lax schedule.

Senate 2010: MO, FL

Missouri:
Sen. Kit Bond, the senior Republican from Missouri who sits on powerful Senate committees, announced Thursday that he will not run for reelection in 2010, giving Democrats a shot to pick up a seat in a state that has emerged as a major battleground.

The announcement is a blow to Senate Republicans who now will have at least four of their incumbents seeking retirement at the end of the session, a sign that 2010 could be another tough cycle for the weakened GOP minority.

Florida:
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) announced Tuesday that he will not seek the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R).Bush, the brother of the current president and the son of the 41st commander in chief, was thought to be perhaps the one GOP candidate who could clear the primary field for the open seat.

Senator Bush?

CQ Politics:

The Tampa Tribune reports that former Gov. Jeb Bush is leaning toward seeking the Republican Senate nomination in 2010. Friends and political associates say Bush has been deluged by Republicans urging him to run, including his brother President George W. Bush. At a White House Christmas party Thursday, “the president was just effusively promoting it to all the Floridians, and so was Laura,” said accountant and GOP financial consultant Nancy Watkins of Tampa. “He was saying, ‘We’ve gotta get Jeb going for the Senate’.” The seat came open when GOP Sen. Mel Martinez said he wouldn’t seek a second term.

Senate Briefs

Florida: Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) will not seek reelection for a second term in 2010. Former Gov. Jeb Bush has been mentioned as a possible contender for the seat. Florida CFO Alex Sink, who was mentioned as a possible challenger to Martinez, had indicated that she will not seek the senate seat even before Martinez announced his decision. Mark Halpernin reports that Martinez may not serve out his term, allowing Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) to name his replacement. The person replacing Martinez would most likely get a head start over potential challengers in 2010.

Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski has some tough words for Palin.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) sent a sharp message to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), according to the Politico: "If you want to make a run at the White House, keep your hands off my Senate seat."

Said Murkowski: "I can guarantee it would be a very tough election... If she wants to be president, I don't think the way to the presidency is a short stop in the United States Senate."

New York: Bill Clinton will not seek Hillary's seat. Here's a list of possible replacements for Sen. Clinton's seat.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) is the consensus strongest pick for the post, not least because he is thought to be a strong opponent for Paterson in two years. Paterson ascended to the seat earlier this year after a prostitution scandal forced Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) out.

Also thought to be near the top of the list are Democratic Reps. Nydia Velazquez, Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Higgins, Nita Lowey, Gregory Meeks and Steve Israel, along with Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi.

Environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his cousin, Caroline Kennedy, also are being mentioned.

Paterson faces a difficult balancing act in a state with many powerful Democratic sects and an executive branch dominated by white men from New York City.

Gillibrand, Higgins and Brown could help mollify up-staters hoping for one of their own; Velazquez or Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr. would give Hispanics a senator; and Meeks would be the only African-American in the Senate, pending a potential black successor to Obama.

Florida Judge Overtuns Gay Adoption Ban

Miami Herald:

A Miami-Dade circuit judge Tuesday declared Florida's 30-year-old ban on gay adoption unconstitutional, allowing a North Miami man to adopt two foster kids he has raised since 2004... Moments after Lederman released the ruling, attorneys for Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum announced they would appeal the decision to the Third District Court of Appeal in Miami.

Same Sex Marriage Banned

Arizona and Florida voted to ban same sex marriage. In California, the proposition to ban same sex marriage is ahead 52% to 49% with about 90% of the votes counted. Three million or so absentee ballots remain uncounted.

Election Day Glitches

Huffington Post on voting issues in Virginia:

At the Math and Science Center in Richmond, Virginia, an early breakdown of electronic voting machines led to a three-and-a-half hour wait to vote on Tuesday morning, according to one poll watcher.

"Some people have been here since 6 a.m., and the first voters are just finishing now," said Judith Browne-Dianis, adding that the Richmond location she was watching did not even have backup paper ballots in case of machine malfunction.

Philly.com reports problems in Pennsylvania.

Readers and Inquirer reporters attempting to cast ballots this morning found long lines across the region created by broken machines.

One of two machines was down at a busy Delaware County polling site. About 50 people already had voted by 9:15 a.m. at the Temple Israel on Spruce and Bywood Avenue in Upper Darby, which is heavily populated by immigrant and first time voters. Many of those freshly-minted voters had difficulties using the one machine that still functioned. "Hell of a day for one of the machines to be down," said one poll worker.

First Read reports problems in Florida, Michigan, and Missouri.

FLORIDA: Voters in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area have experienced numerous problems trying to cast ballots this morning. We have preliminary reports of voters being turned away from the polls for incomplete registrations and instances of the statewide problem of broken optical scan machines in some two dozen polling locations all across the state.

MICHIGAN: Voters are reporting massive voting machine malfunctions across the state resulting in long lines and discouraged voters leaving lines without casting a ballot. In many cases, poll workers are asking voters to cast their ballot on paper and they will tally them later. Some voters are being asked to vote on paper using magic markers.

MISSOURI: There were multiple reports of swapped poll books (voter lists for a given precinct at the wrong location) in Kansas City, MO. This issue has been resolved.

Florida Early Numbers

Miami Herald:

A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida -- a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.

Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.

That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.

Threat

These are the first few paragraphs from an email sent out by David Storck, Chairman of the Hillsborough County Republican Party:

THE THREAT:
HERE IN TEMPLE TERRACE, FL OUR REPUBLICAN HQ IS ONE BLOCK AWAY FROM OUR LIBRARY, WHICH IS AN EARLY VOTING SITE.

I SEE CARLOADS OF BLACK OBAMA SUPPORTERS COMING FROM THE INNER CITY TO CAST THEIR VOTES FOR OBAMA. THIS IS THEIR CHANCE TO GET A BLACK PRESIDENT AND THEY SEEM TO CARE LITTLE THAT HE IS AT MINIMUM, SOCIALIST, AND PROBABLY MARXIST IN HIS CORE BELIEFS. AFTER ALL, HE IS BLACK--NO EXPERIENCE OR ACCOMPLISHMENTS--BUT HE IS BLACK. I ALSO SEE YOUNG COLLEGE STUDENTS AND THEIR PROFESSORS FROM USF PARKING THEIR CARS WITH THE PROMINENT 'OBAMA' BUMPER STICKERS. THE STUDENTS ARE ENTHUSIASTIC TO BE VOTING IN A HISTORIC ELECTION WHERE THERE MAY BE THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT.

THE COLLEGE PROFESSORS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES, FOR THE MOST PART HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN THE WORK-A-DAY WORLD. THEIR LIFE EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACADEMIC UNDER THE TUTELAGE OF LIBERAL COLLEGE PROFESSORS. FOR THEM, A LITTLE SOCIALISM AND ANTI-AMERICANISM IS A GOOD THING. AFTER ALL, IF TERRORISTS ATTACK US, WE MUST HAVE DONE SOMETHING TO PROVOKE THEM.

For the rest, click here or here.

Florida -- The Obama Strategy

Obama's Florida operations are mind boggling. Let's take a look.

• The Obama campaign had more than 60 field offices and 100,000 volunteers in Florida at the beginning of the month.
• Obama has been spending more than $5 million per week on a massive TV ad campaign
• Top surrogates including Hillary and Bill Clinton, and Al and Tipper Gore have been dispatched to the state.
• "Ground game guru" Steve Hildrebrand and Paul Tewes, "who won Iowa for Obama," will be managing the campaign's ground game and GOTV operations in the state.

And the results thus far are encouraging for the campaign.

About 38% of the total number of voters in 2004 have already voted, with a few more days of early voting remaining. Among these voters, Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 38%.

Crist

Popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) cuts an ad for McCain. Is it me or does it sound like he's rushing through the script? It's either too long a script or next time, say it like you mean it, Governor.



H/T: Real Clear Politics

Bubba and Barack

ABC News:Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama will be campaigning together in Orlando, Fla., on Wednesday night. The rally starts at 11 p.m.

Sahil says: 11 p.m.?

Florida

McCain's complacence combined with Obama's superior organization and resources move the race in Florida to a toss-up.

For Senator John McCain, it was not supposed to be this way. From a commanding lead last spring, in a state where Senator Barack Obama did not campaign in the primaries and only hired a state director in June, Mr. McCain is now locked in a neck-and-neck race for a trove of electoral votes that is vital to his hopes of victory.

Odds and Ends

Political Wire notes that the McCain campaign has cut ad spending in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. The spending has increased in red states of Florida and Virginia.

Political Punch notices the disparity in Virginia where Obama has 50 campaign offices to McCain's 24, 200 paid staffers in to McCain’s 50, and Obama is spending $250,000 a day on TV ads in the state, while McCain is spending $30,000 a day.

Top of the Ticket reports that voter registration has stagnated or dropped in safe states – a 5% drop in South Dakota since 2004 and a 2% decrease in New York over the same period. In contrast voter registration is up 30% in Nevada!

For the first time since 1994, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nebraska’s Douglas County.

Obama leads in a new poll from Montana.

News Briefs, 10/23/08

Iraqi province of Babil is handed over to Iraqi security forces by the US military. Babil is the 12th of 18 provinces to be handed over to the Iraqis.

Greenspan concedes error in regulatory views.

Barack Obama's campaign has poured people and money into Florida in building the largest field organization ever assembled in the Sunshine State.

Florida adds voting booths to cope with long lines.

Minnesota's former Republican Governor endorses Obama.

Bill Clinton will campaign for Jim Martin in Georgia's Senate race.

Rep. Murtha (D-PA) is in a tight race after calling his own district racist.

NRCC pulls out of Colorado's CD-4, leaving virulently anti-gay Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) on her own. (H/T: Drew)

NRCC also pulls support for three other endangered GOP incumbents -- Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Tom Feeney (FL-24), and Joe Knollenberg (MI-09).

Odds and Ends

Have you heard about the new AP poll that has Obama leading by just one point? Marc Ambinder points out one of the fishy internals from that poll.

Florida's GOP lawmakers are blamed for the long lines at early voting stations in the state.

A good sign for Mark Udall -- the DSCC pulls out of Colorado.

A bad sign for Rep. Michele Bachmann -- the NRCC pulls out of MN-06.

Would Crist Have Been a Better Choice?

Alan Greenblatt:

Florida hasn't joined the ranks of states presumed lost to McCain, but Republicans there are worried. Newsweek has a piece about the GOP's circular blame game, which notes, among other things, that Gov. Charlie Crist has lately been easier to spot at Disney World lately than at a McCain rally. And then yesterday, all the blogs cited Crist's remark to CNN, in which he suggests that fellow Gov. Sarah Palin offers the ticket no help among independents.

Remember the days when Crist was constantly by McCain's side? He helped deliver the Florida primary with a well-timed endorsement, which had the effect of putting away the rest of the GOP field in time for Super Tuesday. Crist for a while appeared before McCain at every election night victory rally and spent almost as much time traveling with him as Joe Lieberman.

But that was then. McCain obviously didn't pick Crist for the ticket and his campaign didn't even keep him high on the months-long speculation list. Would Crist have been a better choice?...

Briefs from the Presidential Race, 10/20/08

McCain has (only) $47 million to spend.

Democrats have an early voting edge in Nevada.

Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won't be a wave; it'll be a tsunami.

Jane Hamsher argues that McCain's scaremongering on Obama's unprecedented fundraising is misleading.

The American Prospect recommends Sheila Bair for Treasury Secretary.

Bair, 54, also has special appeal because even though she is by far the toughest and most public-minded regulator now on the scene, she happens to be a Republican. It would be an elegant touch for Obama to appoint a Treasury Secretary who is both Republican and female.

Obama makes a huge push in Florida to coincide with the start of early voting in the state.

Obama has no plans to return to the blue states before the elections, aside from a brief stop in Madison, WI. Instead he will be campaigning exclusively in battleground states won by Bush.

Obama leads McCain in newspaper endorsements by a better than 3:1 margin, where Kerry barely edged out Bush in 2004.

On Nuclear Power

A basic and localized look at nuclear power, this a is a good primer for people ambivalent about nuclear power.

The big positive: Nuclear produces huge amounts of power with zero greenhouse gas emissions without using a drop of foreign oil. The two new reactors planned for Turkey Point in South Miami-Dade are the equivalent of roughly 90 square miles of solar panels.

The big negative: More than two million pounds of high-density radioactive waste sit right now at Turkey Point. It's growing by 40 tons each year, and there's no place to send it.

Odds and Ends

Marc Ambinder argues that regardless of the electoral college results, John McCain cannot win the popular vote. This leaves two possibilities, Obama wins both the electoral college and the popular vote, or McCain wins the electoral college sans the popular vote.

Limbaugh implies that Powell endorsed Obama because of his race.

Conservative intellectuals are uneasy about the McCain/Palin ticket.

The state GOP parties in Florida and Virginia are at odds with the McCain campaign.

Powell criticizes the demonization of Muslims. This is the picture he was referring to. Powerful.


Image Source: New Yorker