Goodbye, Reagan Democrats

A fascinating piece from pollster, Stan Greenberg, where he points out a key strength for the Democrats -- their appeal to suburban voters. For decades, these mostly-white suburban voters were a key part of GOP's winning coalition allowing the Republicans to counter Democrats' strength in urban areas. Economic issues such as taxes, defense and national security, and race were some of the factors that drove suburban voters to the GOP. Newly emerging data indicates that these voters are returning to the Democratic fold, partly due to the GOP's focus on divisive social issues. (H/T: Alan Greenblatt)

I'm finished with the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County in suburban Detroit after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians. Bill Clinton wrote in his autobiography that my “extensive research on the so-called Reagan Democrats and what it would take to bring them home” was the reason he hired me as his pollster for his presidential campaign.

For more than 20 years, the non-college-educated white voters in Macomb County have been considered a “national political barometer,” as Ronald Brownstein of National Journal described them during the Democratic convention in August. After Ronald Reagan won the county by a 2-to-1 margin in 1984, Mr. Brownstein noted, I conducted focus groups that “found that these working-class whites interpreted Democratic calls for economic fairness as code for transfer payments to African-Americans.” So what do we think when Barack Obama, an African-American Democrat, wins Macomb County by eight points?

...But focusing on the ways that Macomb County has become normal and uninteresting misses the extraordinary changes taking place next door in Oakland County — a place that played a bigger role in Mr. Obama’s success and perhaps in an emerging national Democratic ascendancy.

While Macomb County is home to the white middle class that America’s auto industry made possible, Oakland County is home to the affluent, business-oriented suburbanites of Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, some of the richest townships in America. Just a quarter of Macomb County residents have college degrees, but more than 40 percent do in Oakland.

Oakland County has formed part of the Republican heartland in Michigan and the country. From 1972 to 1988, Democratic presidential candidates in their best years lost the county by 20 points. From Bill Clinton to John Kerry, however, Democrats began to settle for a draw. Over the past two decades, Oakland County began to change, as an influx of teachers, lawyers and high-tech professionals began to outnumber the county’s business owners and managers. Macomb has been slow to welcome racial diversity, but almost a quarter of Oakland’s residents are members of various racial minorities.

These changes have produced a more tolerant and culturally liberal population, uncomfortable with today’s Republican Party. When we conducted our poll of 600 voters in Oakland County on election night, they were a lot more open than voters in Macomb to gay marriage and affirmative action. We asked those who voted for Mr. Obama why they made that choice. At the top of the list was his promise to withdraw troops from Iraq, followed by his support for tax cuts for the middle class and affordable health care for all, and the idea that he will bring people together, end the old politics and get things done.

On Tuesday, Oakland County voters gave Mr. Obama a 57 percent to 42 percent victory over John McCain — those 15 points translated into an astonishing 96,000-vote margin. That helped form one of the most important new national changes in the electorate: Mr. Obama built up striking dominance in the country’s growing, more diverse and well-educated suburbs.

Election Day Glitches

Huffington Post on voting issues in Virginia:

At the Math and Science Center in Richmond, Virginia, an early breakdown of electronic voting machines led to a three-and-a-half hour wait to vote on Tuesday morning, according to one poll watcher.

"Some people have been here since 6 a.m., and the first voters are just finishing now," said Judith Browne-Dianis, adding that the Richmond location she was watching did not even have backup paper ballots in case of machine malfunction.

Philly.com reports problems in Pennsylvania.

Readers and Inquirer reporters attempting to cast ballots this morning found long lines across the region created by broken machines.

One of two machines was down at a busy Delaware County polling site. About 50 people already had voted by 9:15 a.m. at the Temple Israel on Spruce and Bywood Avenue in Upper Darby, which is heavily populated by immigrant and first time voters. Many of those freshly-minted voters had difficulties using the one machine that still functioned. "Hell of a day for one of the machines to be down," said one poll worker.

First Read reports problems in Florida, Michigan, and Missouri.

FLORIDA: Voters in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area have experienced numerous problems trying to cast ballots this morning. We have preliminary reports of voters being turned away from the polls for incomplete registrations and instances of the statewide problem of broken optical scan machines in some two dozen polling locations all across the state.

MICHIGAN: Voters are reporting massive voting machine malfunctions across the state resulting in long lines and discouraged voters leaving lines without casting a ballot. In many cases, poll workers are asking voters to cast their ballot on paper and they will tally them later. Some voters are being asked to vote on paper using magic markers.

MISSOURI: There were multiple reports of swapped poll books (voter lists for a given precinct at the wrong location) in Kansas City, MO. This issue has been resolved.

Down Ballot Briefs

Harry Reid faces tough choices with key committee chairs opening in time for the next Congress.

The DNC borrows $10 million to spend on House and Senate races.

Politico picks the ten moments that rattled the race for Congress.

NYC mayor endorses Dennis Shulman for Congress.

Two of the biggest newspapers in the area endorse Bachmann's opponent.

Despite early expectations of a close election, the Michigan state house will remain in the hands of Democrats.

McCain Out of Michigan

Jonathan Martin reports that "McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida."

Republicans had been bullish on Michigan, hopeful that McCain's past success in the state in the 2000 primary combined with voter dissatisfaction with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and skepticism among blue-collar voters about Barack Obama could make it competitive.

McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin spent the night after the GOP convention at a large rally in Macomb County, just outside Detroit. The two returned later last month for another sizable event in Grand Rapids.

This is good news for Obama.

UPDATE: CQ Politics reports that the McCain campaign may be withdrawing from Michigan but the state party and RNC will continue to spend in the state.

McCain's Cars

Obama hits McCain in this Michigan-specific ad. The ad shows a clip of McCain saying he's always bought American and then points out that of the 13 cars McCain owns, three are foreign. While not specifically alluding to the number of homes McCain owns, mentioning that McCain owns 13 cars also hammers home the point that McCain is a rich guy who is out of touch with the common man. More importantly, the ad's tag line goes after McCain's image as a straight talker. All in all, I think it's a pretty effective ad.

Connecting Obama and Kilpatrick

An ad hitting Obama for his connections to disgraced former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick of Detroit is set to run in Michigan. The ad is produced by an organization called Freedom’s Defense Fund.

Click to watch the ad.

Also, read Marc Ambinder’s take on potential racial issues at play here.