Death of Yankee Republicanism

Top of the Ticket:

Obama recorded his second-best showing in Vermont, where he garnered 66.8% of the vote. On the one hand, that's no surprise. Vermont, to many, is synonymous with liberalism.

On the other hand, Obama's showing in the Green Mountain State underscores its amazing transformation from a bastion of Republicanism. In the 34 presidential elections between 1856, the first to feature a Republican, and 1992 (when Bill Clinton won it), the GOP candidate failed to carry Vermont precisely once -- in 1964.

Goodbye, Reagan Democrats

A fascinating piece from pollster, Stan Greenberg, where he points out a key strength for the Democrats -- their appeal to suburban voters. For decades, these mostly-white suburban voters were a key part of GOP's winning coalition allowing the Republicans to counter Democrats' strength in urban areas. Economic issues such as taxes, defense and national security, and race were some of the factors that drove suburban voters to the GOP. Newly emerging data indicates that these voters are returning to the Democratic fold, partly due to the GOP's focus on divisive social issues. (H/T: Alan Greenblatt)

I'm finished with the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County in suburban Detroit after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians. Bill Clinton wrote in his autobiography that my “extensive research on the so-called Reagan Democrats and what it would take to bring them home” was the reason he hired me as his pollster for his presidential campaign.

For more than 20 years, the non-college-educated white voters in Macomb County have been considered a “national political barometer,” as Ronald Brownstein of National Journal described them during the Democratic convention in August. After Ronald Reagan won the county by a 2-to-1 margin in 1984, Mr. Brownstein noted, I conducted focus groups that “found that these working-class whites interpreted Democratic calls for economic fairness as code for transfer payments to African-Americans.” So what do we think when Barack Obama, an African-American Democrat, wins Macomb County by eight points?

...But focusing on the ways that Macomb County has become normal and uninteresting misses the extraordinary changes taking place next door in Oakland County — a place that played a bigger role in Mr. Obama’s success and perhaps in an emerging national Democratic ascendancy.

While Macomb County is home to the white middle class that America’s auto industry made possible, Oakland County is home to the affluent, business-oriented suburbanites of Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, some of the richest townships in America. Just a quarter of Macomb County residents have college degrees, but more than 40 percent do in Oakland.

Oakland County has formed part of the Republican heartland in Michigan and the country. From 1972 to 1988, Democratic presidential candidates in their best years lost the county by 20 points. From Bill Clinton to John Kerry, however, Democrats began to settle for a draw. Over the past two decades, Oakland County began to change, as an influx of teachers, lawyers and high-tech professionals began to outnumber the county’s business owners and managers. Macomb has been slow to welcome racial diversity, but almost a quarter of Oakland’s residents are members of various racial minorities.

These changes have produced a more tolerant and culturally liberal population, uncomfortable with today’s Republican Party. When we conducted our poll of 600 voters in Oakland County on election night, they were a lot more open than voters in Macomb to gay marriage and affirmative action. We asked those who voted for Mr. Obama why they made that choice. At the top of the list was his promise to withdraw troops from Iraq, followed by his support for tax cuts for the middle class and affordable health care for all, and the idea that he will bring people together, end the old politics and get things done.

On Tuesday, Oakland County voters gave Mr. Obama a 57 percent to 42 percent victory over John McCain — those 15 points translated into an astonishing 96,000-vote margin. That helped form one of the most important new national changes in the electorate: Mr. Obama built up striking dominance in the country’s growing, more diverse and well-educated suburbs.

Southern Comfort

First Read:

While everyone is trend-spotting demographics and geography through the Obama prism, don't forget to examine the state of the Republican Party through those same lenses. In the House, for instance, the grim picture for the GOP is on full display. According to one Cook Report estimate by House editor David Wasserman, the GOP -- in a worst-case scenario -- could have as few as 16 members left in the Northeast (versus 79 for the Dems). In the South, the GOP lead in House seats could be in single digits, 74-68. In the Midwest, 61-39 could be the House seat split. And finally, out West, powered by the Dem strength on the Pacific coast, the Dem lead could 66-32. Step back and look at those numbers: Nearly half of the House GOP caucus may be rooted in the South. Just as it wasn't healthy for the Democratic Party when it appeared rooted in just the Northeast and the Left coast, neither is it good for the GOP to be seen as simply a regional political party.

North Dakota Calling

First it was Montana, now it's North Dakota's turn. Jonathan Singer points out that DNC Chair Howard Dean will headline a get-out-the-vote rally in Grand Forks, ND.

The three North Dakota polls in the field this month each show Obama either leading or tied with John McCain, though not yet crossing the 45 percent threshold... In short, even with the Obama campaign ramping down its efforts in the state, Obama still has a decent shot at earning its 3 electoral votes. And with Howard Dean rallying the troops three days out from election day, perhaps Obama might be able to sneak away with a narrow victory in the state.

Race and Reconcilliation in WV

An intimate look at how the dynamics of race affect the Democratic party on West Virginia.

Almost as soon as Obama locked up the Democratic presidential nomination, the order came from Washington to merge the operations of the Democratic Party and the Obama campaign from the top down to the local level.

The predominately elderly, white organizers who have run the county Democratic Party here for a generation were uneasy about integrating their operation with the Democratic presidential campaign, which was filled with new, unknown faces, many of them minorities.

Back to Square One

Remember the Mark Foley scandal? Well, the Democrat who replaced Foley, Tim Mahoney, is now engulfed in a scandal of his own. Watch this "devastating" ad.

Registration Boom

Via First Read and Political Wire:

An AP survey of election officials nationwide found that as of Oct. 1, the number of registered Democrats had grown by nearly 5 percent since 2004 -- outpacing overall population growth in the 28 states where information on voter registration by party was available for 2004 and 2008. During the same time, the GOP lost more than 2 percent of its registered voters.”

More: "In states where registration is recorded by party, including eight key states that could decide the election, voters have signed up Democratic in the past six months by a margin of nearly 4-to-1. Obama could hold Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, won by Democrat John Kerry four years ago, and go on to pick up three states won by President Bush: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. He could also narrow the gap in Iowa, as well as in both Florida and North Carolina....

Pelosi, The Scapegoat

A few questions for the 12 House GOP members that supposedly voted against the bailout bill due to a partisan speech by Speaker Nancy Pelosi:

• Were you voting for this bill because you believed that the country was facing a financial crisis and that urgent measures were needed to correct the situation?
• If so, why did you allow a partisan speech to change your vote?
• Do you think that the (supposed) rancor caused by Pelosi's speech is enough of a reason to subject your constituents and the country to whatever repercussions may result from Congress' inaction on this urgent crisis?
• Or If you didn't believe that the crisis is urgent or that the steps prescribed by the bill were needed, why were you inclined to vote for it in the first place?

The Republicans' decision to blame Pelosi for the failure of the bailout really stretches reason and credibility to the extreme. If you are still not convinced that this is a transparent political ploy and a cheap stunt, read this damning article from The Hill.

According to the article, the Republicans did not put much pressure on rank-and-file members. The leadership apparently did not try too hard to sell the plan to GOP members either, with the Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) calling the bill a "crap sandwich" at one point.

Conference politics are also to blame for the hardline posturing from some members who are preparing for leadership races in the next Congress.

Of course, I've saved the best for last.

Leadership officials blasted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for the failure of the bill, claiming her floor address was filled with partisan barbs and forced some Republicans to vote no.

But other Republicans disagreed strongly with that assertion, which was mocked by Democrats as false and petty.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) said the GOP leadership comments were untrue, asserting that House Republicans voted against the bill because of its contents.

“We’re not babies who suck our thumbs,” Bachmann said at a press conference after the vote. Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Texas), the chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee who has triggered speculation that he will mount a leadership bid, was one of the first members to publicly reject the revised rescue plan...

The reality is that the bill is extremely unpopular and that Blunt and Boehner never had the votes needed to pass the bill. The bill's failure is embarrassing for Bush, the GOP leadership in the House, and especially for McCain who was claiming credit for helping pass the bill (before it passed). Pelosi just happened to be the closest scapegoat.

McCain and the Bailout

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) describes the effect McCain’s arrival in DC had on the negotiations for the bailout deal.

I do think that John McCain was very helpful in what he did. I saw him this morning, we’ve been talking with his staff. Clearly, yesterday, his position in that discussion yesterday was one that stopped a deal from, uh, finalizing that no House Republican, in my view, would’ve been for. Which means it probably wouldn’t have passed the House.

Think Progress reports, "Indeed, both Republicans and Democrats fault McCain for derailing a potential bipartisan agreement. Yesterday, Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) and Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL) said a deal was close, but the House GOP — backed by McCain — disrupted the negotiations by proposing a plan that would not receive Democratic support."

Either, McCain’s role in scuttling the deal was irresponsible and resulted in the breakdown in negotiations, or McCain’s arrival helped highlight the fact that the House GOP would not have voted for the bill, which would have resulted in its demise anyway.

No matter which view you subscribe to, here’s a little nugget to keep in mind. Economists may have reservations about the Paulson bill but they really do not like the one proposed by the House GOP.

House Races: An Unusual Ad

Rep. Feeney (R-FL) is in for a tough reelection battle in Florida's 24th district. His Democratic opponent State Rep. Susan Kosmas has been hitting Feeney hard on his connections Abramoff. Polls show a very tight race. Now Feeney is airing this unusual ad where he apologizes for his ties to Abramoff. I think it is a brilliant move. Will the voters forgive him?

Economy: Dems vs. Republicans

A historic analysis of economic trends shows that the economy grew faster under Democratic presidents.

The stark contrast between the whiz-bang Clinton years and the dreary Bush years is familiar because it is so recent. But while it is extreme, it is not atypical. Data for the whole period from 1948 to 2007, during which Republicans occupied the White House for 34 years and Democrats for 26, show average annual growth of real gross national product of 1.64 percent per capita under Republican presidents versus 2.78 percent under Democrats.

Greater economic growth under Democratic presidents was also accompanied by decreasing income inequality.

It is well known that income inequality in the United States has been on the rise for about 30 years now — an unsettling development that has finally touched the public consciousness. But Professor Bartels unearths a stunning statistical regularity: Over the entire 60-year period, income inequality trended substantially upward under Republican presidents but slightly downward under Democrats, thus accounting for the widening income gaps over all.

Thanks for the tip, Jon.

Coming back to the current election, 66% of economists favor Obama compared to the 28% who support McCain according to a survey by the American Economic Association. (H/T: Political Wire)

Sarah Barracuda

Palin’s speech was good. It was very good.

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The ability to attack ruthlessly while coming off as being likeable – that is a rare talent. (Biden, actually, is known for this as well.)

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You have to wonder why Palin keeps repeating that she said no to the Bridge to Nowhere. One has to wonder why she explicitly mentions that she is against earmarks. Both of these can be contradicted factually.

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Obama and Biden need to act quickly before the narrative sets in that Palin is a pork-hating reformer. Once the impression sets in, it is much harder to modify. (See Maverick.)

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Palin brings together the disparate coalitions that make up the GOP base and excites them in ways McCain couldn’t.

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Religion and abortion were largely left out of the speech but then again, Palin didn’t need to mention these. The religious conservatives already know she’s one of them.

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Throwing red meat to a partisan crowd is great. The Republicans should also count on an equal (?) and opposite reaction amongst the Democratic base.

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There are more self-identified Democrats than Republicans currently. There is no arguing that the Republicans need their base energized and united, but they also need a larger share of the independents and Democrats if they are to win.

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Obama and Biden should waste no time in highlighting some of the extreme position Palin holds. No abortion, even in cases of rape and incest.

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There are other extreme positions that Palin has espoused, including teaching creationism in schools. But banning abortions sans exceptions for rape and incest -- this is much more effective on moderates, even those that might be ambivalent about abortions.

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Obama needs to send out women and men from smaller states and rural areas as surrogates. Charges of sexism and elitism do not need to distract from the Democrats’ actual arguments.

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Going back to the second point – facts. It’s a sad reflection of the state of our political discourse where facts are dispensable and the politics of personality so much more prevalent.

House Races: MD-01

This is the first in a series of posts on House races, which often get neglected in favor of the presidential and senate races.

Here’s a quick recap on the race in Maryland's first district. The incumbent is a GOP centrist, Wayne Gilchrest. He faced a tough primary where his opponent, state Sen. Andy Harris and outside groups attacked him from the right. The challenger, Harris, won the GOP primary.

The district is heavily Republican but there is quite a bit of bitterness lingering from the divisive primary. Some of the incumbent Wayne Gilchrest’s longtime staff members joined the Democratic challenger Kratovil’s campaign instead of rallying behind the winner of the GOP primary. Today, Gilchrest himself endorsed Kratovil instead of the GOP nominee. Whether the incumbent’s endorsement helps Kratovil in November remains to be seen but the race will likely be tight.

The drama aside, this race provides another example of the steady decline of GOP moderates in the House, a trend that is helping the Democrats make gains in the suburban areas.