GOP at its Gracious Best

Pennsylvania GOP airs an attack ad featuring Rev. Wright.

House GOP leader calls Obama "chicken shit" for voting present in IL.

A selective quote from an Obama interview is used to make robocalls in coal-producing states.

Nasty push polls are reported in Ohio.

Try, Try, Try Again

If the Supreme Court dismisses your complaint, try the White House.

The White House has asked the Department of Justice to look into whether 200,000 new Ohio voters must reconfirm their registration information before Nov. 4, taking up an issue that Republicans and Democrats in the battleground state have been fighting over in court for weeks.

News Briefs, 10/21/08

David Bernstein argues that McCain's only road to the White House leads through Pennsylvania.

The AFL-CIO labor federation will deploy 250,000 volunteers to 20 states over the next few weeks, hoping to maximize turnout among 13 million specially targeted union members. This is the largest independent GOTV program in the nation.

Here are some early voting numbers from key states.

Ohio Secretary of State's Web site hacked.

The September fundraising numbers for Democratic committees look good.

Here is a list of close legislative races in the states. The outcome of these races will impact redistricting in the states.

Scott J. Bloch, the embattled U.S. special counsel whose tenure has brought national attention to his once-obscure agency, said yesterday that he will resign in January instead of staying on until a replacement can take over.

Joe Klein banned from McCain Palin flights as well.

Rachel Maddow produces a sharp rise in ratings for MSNBC.

Why Brunner Matters

Josh Goodman describes why Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is one of the most important election officials in the country. It's not just a matter of winning Ohio's 20 electoral votes although that's nothing to sneeze at.

Ohio has a hybrid redistricting process. The legislature gets to draw congressional lines, but state legislators don't get to change state legislative lines. Instead, that task is left to the five-member Ohio Reapportionment Board.

Who are the members? It includes one representative selected by each of the two major parties in the legislature -- so, one Democrat and one Republican. It includes the governor, who is currently Ted Strickland, a popular Democrat. A lot can happen in two years, but, for now, Strickland seems likely to win reelection. The fourth member is the state auditor, currently Mary Taylor, the only Republican to win statewide in 2006. She'll probably be a favorite in 2010 too. And, finally, it includes the secretary of state

In other words, the Reapportionment Board will probably have two Democrats, two Republicans and whoever occupies the secretary of state's office. Brunner's reelection bid is crucial. She seems likely, if the scuttlebutt is to be believed, to face Jon Husted, the outgoing speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives.

Key Counties

Politico:

Sen. Barack Obama holds leads in four key counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner in four important swing states — Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia — according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey.

Obama is poised to expand on recent Democratic gains in three populous suburban counties — Pennsylvania’s Bucks County, Missouri’s St. Louis County and Virginia’s Prince William County. In a fourth, Ohio’s Franklin County, home to Columbus and its suburbs, the survey also found Obama with the lead.

News Briefs, 10/17/08

Autumn temperatures in the Arctic are at record levels, the Arctic Ocean is getting warmer and less salty as sea ice melts, and reindeer herds appear to be declining, researchers reported yesterday.

First Read: In a victory for the state of Ohio, the US Supreme Court has overturned a lower court order, freeing the state from a requirement that it share information about voter databases with county election boards.

The United States said Friday that North Korea has stepped up disablement of a nuclear reactor it had been threatening to reactivate.

Home construction took its third tumble in a row during September, falling to the lowest level in 17 years, and a sign points to further decline in the fourth quarter.

Hawaii is dropping the only state universal child health care program in the country just seven months after it launched.

WP: A leading House Democrat alleged yesterday that a top fundraiser for Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain has been involved in apparent war profiteering by inflating prices on jet fuel in defense contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

RCP: 3,200 academics around the country have signed a petition in defense of Bill Ayers, saying that those who criticize the unrepentant former domestic terrorist who now teaches at the University of Illinois - Chicago are are trying to "intimidate free thinking and stifle critical dialogue.

Washington Post endorses Obama.

Obama's Ground Game

The Debatable Land (via Alan Greenblatt):

I spent a little bit of time at the Obama state HQ in Columbus yesterday. It was jaw dropping. They had taken over an old mega-church. The first floor was a warren of staffers running around all very young and all very busy. The basement was probably the size of a supermarket, lined with table after table. Each table was staffed by four youngsters, all responsible for a different city, county, task etc. It looked like the command center for a massive army. No windows, no natural light, but filled with kids who probably had no idea it was 8am all hovering over computers, maps, data sheets. There were 600 staffers there, all dedicated to Ohio, at 8am. I'm amazed."

Stunning Numbers

Obama's September haul may surpass $100 million.

Approximately 94% of all eligible voters in Ohio are now registered to vote.

In Pennsylvania, "Democratic registration has surged by 13 percent and Republican ranks have shrunk by 1 percent as a record 8.6 million people in battleground Pennsylvania registered to vote in the presidential election."

"In the ABC News / Washington Post poll of Ohio, 37% of those who made it through the likely voter screen said they had been contacted by the Obama campaign in some way or another. That's ten points higher than the number who say they've been contacted by the McCain campaign. And adding in e-mails or texts, the Obama figure rises to 43% of voters -- probably a record for a presidential campaign." (Source: Marc Ambinder)

Almost 100% of McCain's advertising is negative compared to 34% of Obama's ads. (Results from the previous two-week period can be found here.)

And finally, a fantastic video that is a part of Obama's rural outreach efforts in Ohio. (H/T: Marc Ambinder)

Under the Radar

I wrote about Local Hits early last week.

First Read and Campaign Diaries seem to agree.

First Read:

Obama’s stealth ad campaign: Over the past week, we've gotten our hands on a number of negative TV ads Obama's been running against McCain in key states like Ohio and Michigan. This is in addition to the tough spot, uncovered by Politico [*** UPDATE *** Actually the spot was uncovered by the Washington Times' Christina Bellantoni, who reported on it yesterday and was linked to by Politico] , that Obama's airing in Indiana. Clearly, the Obama campaign isn't interested in telling the media about every single McCain attack ad they’re running. Perhaps this is because Obama's brand can't afford to be tarnished too much if he's seen as constantly running negative TV ads. So the campaign simply puts them on the air in key markets, doesn't tell the press about them, and layers those ads with positive ones being run nationally during the Olympics. Also, by not releasing to the media, it forces the McCain camp to wait a day or two before they see the ad. McCain's camp is much more comfortable unveiling their negative ads, perhaps because they want the free press that comes with them. But make no mistake, Obama’s running plenty of negative TV ads, particularly in the industrial Midwestern states. In fact, one of Obama's biggest candidate strengths -- which doesn't get the attention it deserves -- is that he plays political hardball as well as his opponents; he just sometimes does it under the radar.

Campaign Diaries:

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Obama campaign’s positive ads at the national level are being complemented with some harsh state-level attack ads. This, of course, raises an interesting question: which negative strategy is the most effective? McCain’s attempts to globally reinforce the theme of Obama lacking substance, or Obama finding local issues with which McCain can be tarnished (Harleys in Wisconsin, Yucca Mountain in Nevada, DHL in Ohio)?

Local Hits

Sen. McCain’s volley of negative ads has some Democrats worried that Obama is about to be swift-boated. The Obama camp has certainly responded with ads of its own, but the general impression remains that the Obama ads are mostly positive. Perhaps, there is a method to the Obama madness. By running positive ads nationally, Obama can maintain his image as a politician that is above politics as usual and allow the national media to craft a narrative that supports and feeds this impression.

In the meantime, Obama hits McCain hard on the campaign trail, where his attacks will most likely get coverage in the local media. It’s a strategy that worked for Obama in the primaries. Supplementing the verbal attacks on the campaign trail is a recently emerging pattern of localized media attacks on McCain. Obama’s ad in Nevada hits McCain on the Yucca Mountain issue. His radio ad in Ohio goes after McCain’s DHL connection and his latest ad in Wisconsin attacks McCain’s opposition to “buy American” rules.

In the general election where a handful of swing states will determine the outcome of the race, this localized strategy may just prove to be the most effective one.

* Harley-Davidson is based in Wisconsin but also has plants in York, PA and Kansas City, MO. McCain happens to have a campaign stop scheduled in York, PA.