South, West Gain Clout

Boston Globe:

Southern and western states are poised to snatch more congressional seats from the rest of the country as Americans pursue open spaces and warmer climates.

The nation's migration west and south has slowed, according to new government population estimates. But states in the Northeast and Midwest are still projected to lose political clout in Washington after the 2010 census, when the nation apportions the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, based on population.

Texas stands to be the biggest winner, picking up as many as four seats, while Ohio could be the big loser, giving up as many as two seats, according to projections by two firms that specialize in political apportionment. California is in danger of losing a seat for the first time since it became a state, though experts disagree on the likelihood of that happening.

State of the State Legislatures, Part II

Tim Storer:

The Democratic advantage in governors is matched in legislatures. Democrats control both chambers in 23 states compared to 14 for Republicans. In 12 states, party control is divided. (The Nebraska Legislature is both nonpartisan and unicameral.) The last time Democrats controlled more than 23 states was before the 1994 election, when Republicans walloped Democrats by seizing the majority in 21 chambers. Currently, Democrats have a 57 to 39 edge in control of individual chambers. There are two legislative bodies that have an equal number of Republicans and Democrats—the Oklahoma and Tennessee senates.

...At least 28 of the 84 legislative chambers with elections this year can be called battlegrounds with either party having a chance to emerge with a majority. At the top of the list are the Oklahoma and Tennessee senates, which are tied. In nine other chambers (Alaska Senate, Maine Senate, Montana Senate, Nevada Senate, New York Senate, Indiana House, Montana House, Oregon House, and Pennsylvania House) a shift of only one seat would change the majority.

The list of key states that are on the bubble may be most remarkable because it includes several of the biggest states where legislative control could have a major impact on congressional redistricting of large U.S. House delegations in 2011. The house in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, along with the New York Senate, are all close enough to be in play.

H/T: Open Left

News Briefs, 10/21/08

David Bernstein argues that McCain's only road to the White House leads through Pennsylvania.

The AFL-CIO labor federation will deploy 250,000 volunteers to 20 states over the next few weeks, hoping to maximize turnout among 13 million specially targeted union members. This is the largest independent GOTV program in the nation.

Here are some early voting numbers from key states.

Ohio Secretary of State's Web site hacked.

The September fundraising numbers for Democratic committees look good.

Here is a list of close legislative races in the states. The outcome of these races will impact redistricting in the states.

Scott J. Bloch, the embattled U.S. special counsel whose tenure has brought national attention to his once-obscure agency, said yesterday that he will resign in January instead of staying on until a replacement can take over.

Joe Klein banned from McCain Palin flights as well.

Rachel Maddow produces a sharp rise in ratings for MSNBC.

Why Brunner Matters

Josh Goodman describes why Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is one of the most important election officials in the country. It's not just a matter of winning Ohio's 20 electoral votes although that's nothing to sneeze at.

Ohio has a hybrid redistricting process. The legislature gets to draw congressional lines, but state legislators don't get to change state legislative lines. Instead, that task is left to the five-member Ohio Reapportionment Board.

Who are the members? It includes one representative selected by each of the two major parties in the legislature -- so, one Democrat and one Republican. It includes the governor, who is currently Ted Strickland, a popular Democrat. A lot can happen in two years, but, for now, Strickland seems likely to win reelection. The fourth member is the state auditor, currently Mary Taylor, the only Republican to win statewide in 2006. She'll probably be a favorite in 2010 too. And, finally, it includes the secretary of state

In other words, the Reapportionment Board will probably have two Democrats, two Republicans and whoever occupies the secretary of state's office. Brunner's reelection bid is crucial. She seems likely, if the scuttlebutt is to be believed, to face Jon Husted, the outgoing speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives.