Whether Weather Will Affect Voters

Five Thirty Eight:

Conventional wisdom (and at least one econometric study) holds that poor weather does indeed help the Republicans. But might the reverse be true in a year when Democratic enthusiasm significantly outpaces Republican enthusiasm?

Two implications worth considering. Firstly, the most important factor might be the weather patterns within a given state. For example, if it's rainy and dismal in Democratic-leaning Cleveland, but relatively dry in Southern Ohio, that probably helps the Republicans. If it's nice in NoVa but there's freezing rain in the Virginia panhandle, that probably helps the Democrats.

Secondly, a candidate would prefer depressed turnout in a state where he has a substantial advantage in early voting. The states where Democrats have the most significant advantages in early voting seem to be Nevada and North Carolina ... they might want to root for poor weather there.