Tightening Race

You hear about it, you read about it -- the tightening of the race, whether it will happen, and if it'll happen soon enough for McCain. Nate Silver, the uncrowned king of numbers and perhaps one of the most widely quoted sources of election statistics this season, explains what a tightening would look like.

"Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning."