MN Senate: Coleman's Lead Shrinks

The Minneapolis Star Tribune:

With about 46 percent of the 2.9 million ballots counted by Thursday evening, the gap between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and DFL challenger Al Franken continued to close. Coleman was leading by only 136 votes, a drop from his unofficial lead of 215 that was confirmed Tuesday by the state Canvassing Board.

Coleman, Allies Try to Discredit Results

Salon:

...In any case, the Coleman camp is clearly worried and has turned up the noisemakers to discredit both the canvass and the recount. Nearly every movement of a few votes into Franken's column has elicited shrieks of "fraud" from the incumbent's friends. In each case, those shrill complaints have been thoroughly discredited by independent observers.

On Fox News and on the Journal editorial page, much was made of 32 absentee ballots allegedly kept overnight in an election official's car and then counted the next day. Nothing of the kind occurred, as Coleman's own attorney later admitted after apparently inventing the story himself. But the purpose of the false tale was clear enough -- and those spreading it didn't mind smearing innocent people whose characters are superior to theirs...

Vote Fluctuation in MN Not Unusual

Political Wire:

Despite the legal saber-rattling as the campaigns gear up for a recount in Minnesota, WCCO-TV notes the changing vote totals "may look suspicious" but "it's really not that unusual."

"The night that Sen. Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale in the 2002 U.S. Senate race he piled up more than 1,062,000 votes. But when all the ballots were certified two weeks later, Coleman had 54,000 more votes... Between election night voting numbers, and two weeks later when the State Canvassing Board certified official results, Coleman gained 54,429 votes. Mondale's vote total also went up 63,192 votes, but not enough to beat Coleman."

"It's what happens in Minnesota elections. We just don't pay attention when the race isn't close."

MN Senate: Lead Shrinks to 204

Norm Coleman's lead dwindles to 204 votes as the counties certify their results. Coleman's lead started out at about 750 votes. Once the certification happens, the manual recount will begin.


Image Source

Battling Suits

Norm Coleman sues Al Franken for defamation.

A Texas businessman sues a wealthy Norm Coleman supporter for forcing him to make secret payments to Coleman's wife.

And we are not even talking about the other suits.

Pattern

Washington Post: At the end of perhaps the most charged and negative week of the presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain sought to tone down his rhetoric toward Sen. Barack Obama even as his running mate, allies and his own advertising continued to attack the character of the Democrat...

KSTP: Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman, locked in an increasingly tight and bitter election contest with Democrat Al Franken, said Friday that his campaign would halt negative advertising in a race recently dominated by it… In a Minnesota Public Radio News/University of Minnesota poll released earlier this week, respondents by a more than two-to-one margin blamed Coleman more than Franken for the negative tone of advertising in the Senate race.

Oralndo Sentinel: Today, Kosmas released a list of 15 questions that counter a new ad by the third-term Oviedo Republican in which he tells viewers that he is sorry for his role in the Jack Abramoff corruption scandal. Among her questions: Why is Feeney apologizing after claiming he did nothing wrong in the first place?

Anyone else see a pattern?

Coleman's Crisis of Conscience

Sen. Norm Coleman has been on the defense lately. (See this previous post on the incompetent and incoherent response from the campaign on 'suitgate' and the McCain healthcare plan.)

Today the Coleman campaign announced its decision to stop negative ads. Coleman hopes that by making this unusual and unilateral move, he will appear to be taking the high road. And he hopes that Franken and the Democrats will have to tone down their attacks on Coleman, especially attacks on the recent stumbles.

I don't think Coleman's gamble will pay off. The decision comes a little too late, rings a little hollow after a season of savage attack ads, and is strangely reminiscent of GOP Rep. Feeney's ad. It's also reminds me of John McCain's move to "suspend" his campaign.

In the meantime, see this brilliant ad from Al Franken.


(H/T: Campaign Diaries)

MN Senate: Suits and Health Care

If you haven't been following "suit-gate" and the healthcare dodge, here's a two-minute backgrounder.

Suit-gate: Harper's Magazine publishes allegations that Norm Coleman's tab (for expensive suits) was footed by a wealthy GOP donor.

Healthcare dodge: A reporter asks whether Coleman supports Sen. McCain's healthcare plan but the Coleman campaign refuses to answer.

Now watch these videos to see what makes both of the seemingly mundane stories so damaging for the Coleman campaign.





One or both stories might not have lasted long, especially given all the coverage of the financial crisis and the Presidential race, but Coleman's refusal to answer or even acknowledge media queries has only exacerbated the situation.

Angry Al

I wrote about DSCC's brilliant ad "Running Man" recently. Well, Norm Coleman responds with a harsh new ad that uses Al Franken's own words against him. The ad portrays Franken as angry, mean, and foul-mouthed. Granted the clips are from a previous life as a radio personality and a comedian, but they are jarring enough to attract attention. Conventional wisdom says that if the race is about Franken, Coleman wins. If the race is about Coleman and his record, Franken wins. What do you think of the ad? Do you think it's a bit much for TV? Will it only run late at night?



The tight race in Minnesota has produced some great ads. Check out some of the ads here and here.

Hourglass: DSCC Hits Coleman on Iraq

Previous posts on the Senate race in Minnesota are here, here, and here.

Election Year Moderation

Congressional Quarterly highlights waning support for President Bush as Republicans prepare for a tough election in November.

Until last year, Bush had historically high support scores among Republicans: No GOP president had done as well among fellow party members since 1953, when Congressional Quarterly began tabulating these things. Not even Ronald Reagan could boast of Bush’s degree of support.

GOP House members voted Bush’s way between 80 percent and 89 percent of the time on roll calls where he took a clear position during his first six years. Among Republican senators, his average support score had been even higher, reaching 94 percent twice, in 2001 and 2003.

In both chambers, Bush’s support faded a bit in 2007, but this year it has fallen through the floor. The average House Republican supported him just 63 percent of the time in 2008, and the average GOP senator, 68 percent.

The chart below highlights some of the more blatant attempts at election year moderation, especially among Senators facing tough reelection battles. The percentages in the chart show how often the Senator in question supported Bush on roll call votes. For the original and complete chart, follow the link to the CQ article.

Hockey

Another well made ad from the DSCC, it's running against Norm Coleman in MN.



Previously: Running Man

Running Man

A great ad -- the DSCC is running it in Minnesota against Sen. Norm Coleman.



This one is running against John Sununu in New Hampshire but it's so hurried and all over the place. What do you think?