Ethanol

Many articles have questioned McCain's obsession with Iowa. Given that he all but skipped the caucuses in Iowa to campaign in New Hampshire, and that he has not led in a single public poll from the state, the obsession is puzzling. And then there's this video of McCain's combative interview with the the editorial board of the state's largest newspaper. Over the weekend, both McCain and Palin have mentioned their support for ethanol in campaign speeches. (Iowa is the nation's largest producer of ethanol) To be fair, neither has talked about subsidies for ethanol, which McCain has adamantly opposed. If the McCain-Palin campaign is touting its support for ethanol sans subsidies, why do it now and not earlier? The McCain camp may have been hoping that the nuances about subsidies would escape the voters' attention but instead they seem to have been lost on reporters, who are reporting on the matter as a last minute, politically convenient conversion.

Odds and Ends

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Is John McCain obsessed with Iowa?

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Out of Options

First Read:

So many pundits and analysts are wondering why McCain is continuing to push for Iowa and Pennsylvania, despite the daunting poll numbers in those two states. There are two reasons. First, he's run out of options. If you assume Colorado is gone and that Virginia is teetering, he has to find 270 EVs somewhere. Second, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two of the oldest states in the union, as far as the age of their populations. Both states have tons of seniors, and if McCain can turn things around again with seniors, he should see movement first in these two states. Simply put, the campaign doesn't have a lot of options; it's not worth attempting to hold states that get McCain to 250 or 260 electoral votes. The game is getting to 270, and Iowa and Pennsylvania may be his last hope at keeping a path to 270 alive.

Why Iowa?

Why is John McCain campaigning in Iowa? The Democratic Strategist notes that not a single poll taken this year has shown McCain leading in Iowa, and most of the polls taken in September show Obama with double digit leads.

Polls aside, there are four big reasons that virtually everyone outside the McCain campaign has been assuming Obama would carry the state this year: (1) Iowa had one of the country's strongest pro-Democratic trends in 2006, producing a gubernatorial landslide, a Democratic takeover of the state legislature, and pickups of two U.S. House seats (one against the previously invulnerable Jim Leach, who's now endorsed Obama); (2) Barack Obama built a powerful organization in the state prior to the Caucuses, which is still in place; (3) McCain skipped the Caucuses in both of his presidential election, which Iowans consider a deadly insult; and (4) McCain has also stubbornly opposed federal subsidies for ethanol, an issue so important to Iowans that a long line of presidential candidates in both parties (including George W. Bush) have flip-flopped on it precisely because of its importance in Iowa.

Is McCain losing his head?