Senate 2008: MS, TX, and GA

Recent polls show the race tightening in Texas.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 5/5-7 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 44 (44)
John Cornyn (R-inc): 50 (48)
Yvonne Adams (L): 2 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4%)

The Texas Senate race just keeps hanging around the cusp of viability, with Rick Noriega staying in striking distance of Big John Cornyn. This race started to slip away from Noriega over the summer, but this result is in line with the most recent Rasmussen poll (50-43 two weeks ago) showing a somewhat tighter race. (In the same sample, McCain leads Obama in Texas by a rather encouraging 52-40.)

As Markos points out in his write-up of this poll, the big obstacle in making a big end-of-the-game push in this race is the astronomical cost of playing in Texas. The cost of blanketing Texas is in the same ballpark as blanketing Mississippi, Georgia and Kentucky together, any of which also has the possibility of being Senate Seat #60. Economic realities, unfortunately, may dictate this race taking a back seat to those other three.

The race is tight in Mississippi as well.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 46 (43)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±4%)

Well, the tightening of this race (also evident in the most recent Rasmussen poll of Mississippi) is great news, but Musgrove has also inched up to 24% of the white vote -- that could well be very close to what he needs in order to squeak out a win here, assuming he can take 90% or more of the black vote (he currently beats Wicker among African-Americans by 83-5, with 12% undecided).

The race in Georgia, meanwhile has surprised most observers.


Source: RCP