Lower Turnout in Oregon

Nate Silver points out that according to Oregon's "Elections Division, the state has received 522,188 ballots through the first seven days of its early voting window. This compares with 645,473 ballots received during the first seven days of 2004 -- a 19 percent decline."

Silver also observes that decline is steeper in counties that are more Republican. He posits that Obama's large leads in the polls, lack of enthusiasm for McCain, and a bitter Senate race may be causing the decline in early voting.

I wonder if the nasty primary in Oregon's fifth district has also led people to hold on to their ballots until later. Conventional wisdom is that the eventual nominee, Mike Erickson, would never have won the primary in CD 5 if people hadn't already mailed in their ballots.

Two other things to note -- How does the drop in early voting from Republican counties affect the Senate race? Oregon and Washington are fairly close, culturally and politically. Will Washington have a similarly lower turnout and if so, how will it affect the gubernatiorial race?