VP Humor

Thanks for the tip, Tim.

Image Source: Ink Tank

Palin

Initial thoughts:

• Definitely a surprise
• Unknown nationally, but a female candidate and the surprise element make the pick exciting in the short term
• After hitting Obama on inexperience, this is hypocritical to say the least
• It will be interesting to see how this choice affects the gender gap in the general election
• This pick will steal the headlines from Obama
• Last but not least, a not-so-subtle hit at Obama for not picking Hillary?

Daschle Redux

This is in response to a reader comment on the previous Daschle post.

First, I do think that Biden and Kaine, or even Sebelius have a greater chance of being picked as Obama’s running mate than Daschle. But Daschle and (to a lesser extent) Clinton are wild cards whose nomination would produce a big surprise, and carry a few news cycles by keeping the chattering class, well, chattering. For a campaign that is notoriously tightlipped and uber-disciplined, this surprise would also represent a coup of sorts.

Now to answer the concerns raised in the comment – Daschle’s biggest strength is that he is liked, trusted, and respected by Obama. This is exactly the kind of person that Michelle Obama and Daschle himself have recommended for Obama. He is reliable and not gaffe-prone (like Biden). He has experience and is generally well liked.

Daschle is not likely to bring much in terms of electoral votes, perhaps a bump in the Dakotas and some appeal to moderates in the Midwest.

But running mates don’t always help carry states and often times, they are not even chosen with that intention. (See Edwards and Cheney.) Besides, the only candidates that could clearly help carry a specific state are Mark Warner (VA), Hillary Clinton (AR), and Bill Richardson (NM). Bayh, Biden (in PA), and Kaine could help but whatever they add to the margin is not guaranteed to tip the balance.

As for Daschle losing his senate race in SD, there is definitely a psychological impact. How much weight that would carry in Obama’s decision-making, though, is unclear. Daschle lost in a Republican state in a very Republican year, as one of the faces of the Democratic Party. The circumstances are certainly different today.

Dark Horse Daschle

Marc Ambinder's latest poll asks readers to vote on who they think is most likely to get picked as Obama's running mate. I left a comment on his blog, the gist of which was that Biden, Kaine, or Sebelius could be picked but that if Obama was planning on a big surprise, Clinton or Daschle could be in the running.

Why Daschle? Tom Daschle was an early supporter of Obama. He endorsed Obama in February of 2007. He is the national co-chair of the Obama campaign.

Obama's campaign staff is filled with Daschle old-timers. From this must-read article in The American Prospect:

Often called "the 101st Senator," Rouse, an understated 62-year-old with 30-odd years of Capitol Hill experience, had been Tom Daschle's powerful chief of staff... Obama's chief of staff is the aforementioned Daschle associate, Pete Rouse. His deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, managed Daschle's 2004 campaign. His director for battleground states, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, and his director of communications, Dan Pfeiffer, were both deputy campaign managers for Daschle in 2004. Obama's foreign-policy director, Denis McDonough, was Daschle's foreign-policy adviser, and his finance director, Julianna Smoot, was head of Daschle's PAC.

Daschle admitted recently that he had been vetted by Obama's team. By most accounts Obama likes and respects Daschle, which is a good thing even if it's not always necessary.

Some potential problems: Daschle's post-senate lobbying and Daschle's long career in D.C. which doesn't exactly match the outsider/change theme that Obama espouses.

Fever Pitch

The speculation about Obama’s running mate has reached a fever pitch.

Chris Cillizza wonders what it means that one of Kaine’s former staffers has joined the V.P. team.

Marc Ambinder suggests that Biden's recent trip to Georgia highlights his foreign policy credentials, and therefore his appeal as Obama’s running mate.

David Sirota lays out his arguments against picking Evan Bayh.

With so much ink devoted to Bayh, Biden, and Kaine in recent days, picking Sebelius would certainly provide more of a surprise.

A much bigger surprise, though, would be Hillary Clinton, whose chances have pretty much been written off by the press.

Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah Biden

The Fix’s Chris Cillizza runs a fascinating series on potential vice presidential nominees, where he lays out the case for and against each candidate. This week, the subject is Joe Biden.

The arguments for and against Biden are all interesting but this nugget where Cillizza quotes Washington Post’s Dana Milbank is priceless.

"Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., in his first 12 minutes of questioning the nominee, managed to get off only one question. Instead, during his 30-minute round of questioning, Biden spoke about his own Irish American roots, his "Grandfather Finnegan," his son's application to Princeton (he attended the University of Pennsylvania instead, Biden said), a speech the senator gave on the Princeton campus, the fact that Biden is "not a Princeton fan," and his views on the eyeglasses of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)."

Previously on The Fix's VP series:

Rob Portman
Evan Bayh
Charlie Crist
Tim Kaine
Mitt Romney
Hillary Clinton
Tim Pawlenty
Kathleen Sebelius

A Shrinking Field?

Obama’s latest ad will play in 16 states, two fewer than the last round. Which two states didn’t make the cut? Georgia and Indiana.

Does this mean the Obama will not pick Evan Bayh as his running mate?

Georgia, despite its large African American population was always considered a long shot for Obama but Obama’s efforts there could’ve helped the senate race. The DSCC released a poll showing a 6-point race between Martin and Chambliss.

As with all partisan polls, the results should be taken with a grain of salt but any tightening will create much excitement among Democrats looking to avenge Max Cleland’s defeat.