Ambinder on Why Obama Won

Marc Ambinder puts forth some theories on why Obama won the election.

But why, in the middle of a crisis, did Americans choose an unknown Illinois senator with a funny name over a war hero they've known for years?

-- The exit polls demographics tell a story of an expansion of the Democratic-leaning electorate by Obama; he did much better with Kerry than Hispanics; he grew the ranks of younger voters; he grew the African American vote; he did a bit better among white voters, but still lost working class whites by nearly 20 points. Obama won among new voters by more than 30 points.

-- Obama is a once-in-a-generation candidate, a brilliant communicator in an age of communication. Cool and consistent under pressure. He grew over the course of two years into a candidate voters believed was ready to be president. The right candidate at the right moment. The most un-Bush of any of the Democratic candidates.

-- The financial crisis, and the candidates' response to it. Probably the crucial moment for both campaigns. The voters saw the two men react to an unexpected crisis. Voters seemed to prefer Obama's steadiness to McCain's suspended campaign. McCain's sudden decision was 180 degrees from what he had been saying a week before ("fundamentals of our economy are strong").

-- Sarah Palin. Polling shows that she drove some voters away from Sen. McCain and to Barack Obama. Voters judged her to be too inexperienced to be president. Also, instead of appealing to independents, she became a polarizing figure. ALSO -- her persona highlighted McCain's age and health since she could have taken over. ALSO -- her selection killed the "inexperience" argument against Obama.

-- Message, message, message. Obama branded himself as "Change" two years ago, McCain tried Maverick, Reformer, Country First, Steady Hand At The Wheel, Tax Cutter, and even flirted with "Real American" by the end, and none of them were consistent.

-- A Long Democratic primary. Obama honed his skills, and defeated the biggest brand name in Democratic politics. Not only did he sharpen his message and build a national campaign, he earned the respect of voters by winning a hard-fought primary against Hillary Clinton without appearing to go too negative. ALSO -- forced his campaign to build organizations all across the country, especially in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada.