The Tightening Race

Nate Silver points out that the tracking polls do show a slight tightening of the race, with McCain gaining ground in 4 of the 6 tracking polls. However, the improvement is mostly from an energized Republican base, he argues.

McCain's other problem is that the polls in battleground states have not really tightened at all. Obama gets good numbers today, for instance, in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida. Obama presently has something like a 3:1 advantage in advertising, and most of that advertising is concentrated in battleground states. As such, this may serve as a hedge against any improvements that McCain is able to make elsewhere in the country.